Forecasting the Amount of Water Consumed in Erbil City using Time Series Model (SARIMA)

  • saman Hussein Mahmood Department of Statistics and Informatics / ‎Administration and Economics‎ College/ Salahaddin University-Erbil
  • Imad Ali Omar Department of Civil Engineering / Engineering College / Salahaddin University-Erbil
Keywords: Forecasting, SARIMA, Water Consumed, Time series


Forecasting in the time series is one of the essential subjects in statistical science because its indicators helps the government to make a good plan to get an accurate decision in the future. This research was conducted to analyse the time series data for the amount of water consumed in Erbil City for the years proceeding the period between (1/1/2014) until of (30/6/2019). In the analysis, the study found non-stationary in the time series, so the necessary transformations were taken on the series to remove the non-stationary. Thus, the best model was found among the obtained models, SARIMA (0, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1)12 produces the best results based on the minimum statistical criteria (RMSE, MAE, MAPE) used for comparison.

Finally, using the best model to forecast the water monthly average consumed in Erbil City for 12 months (6 months in 2019 and 6 months in 2020) and the results appeared to be consistent with those actual values ​​in the time series.


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How to Cite
Mahmood saman, Omar I. Forecasting the Amount of Water Consumed in Erbil City using Time Series Model (SARIMA). JAHS [Internet]. 5Dec.2019 [cited 22Jan.2020];23(6):285 -296. Available from: