The Demand for Tourism in the Province of Erbil, Especially during the Winter Season of 2015-2016

  • Sarah Ahmed Hassan College of Administration and Economic / Salahaddin University-Erbil
Keywords: tourism demand, macro level of Kurdistan Region, annual increase, Erbil governorate level, tourist demand model

Abstract

The picturesque nature and water resources in the Kurdistan Region stimulate many tourists in the neighboring areas to come to the arena and spend a pleasant time. As the economy of the Kurdistan region recovers, its tourism industry is also booming, and tourism demand is rising. At the macro level of the Kurdistan Region, the annual increase in tourist demand (tourist arrivals) increased during the period years 2007-2013, which was about 33% in 2013, while the rate declined significantly in 2014 to 48% due to the ISIS war, and the financial crises.

However, at the level of Erbil governorate, a random sample of 201 tourists was taken in the winter of the year 2015-2016, where most of them (22.4%) spent 100,000 dinars on each trip. About 30% of the people surveyed travel once a year, another 30% travel twice a year, and 16% travel three times a year. The explanatory variables of the tourism demand model in Erbil governorate consist of: The effects of high prices, transportation means, tourism expenses, reservation system, income level, and educational level have significant effects on the dependent variable (number of tourism times per year), because the calculated F statistic is greater than F tabular, with Ṝ2= 68.6%. While the most significant variables affecting the demand model individually (ceteris paribus) are clarified by the t-test at the level of 5% alpha consisting of; price effects, transportation means, tourism expenses, and reservation system.

References

- Abdullah, Abdul Aziz, and Hamdan, Mohd Hairil. (2012). Internal Success Factor of Hotel Occupancy Rate. International Journal of Business and Social Science. [Online] vol. 3, No. 22. Available at: http://www.ijbssnet.com/journals/Vol_3_No_22_Special_Issue_November_2012/18.pdf [accessed 10 Dec, 2018]
- Ahmed, Zhiyan. (2009). The Reality of the Supply and Demand of Tourists in the Governorate of Sulaymaniyah– an Econometric analytical study. Master dissertation in Economics. The University of Sulaymaniyah.
- Barzan Muhammad. Erbil named 2014 Arab Tourism Capital. KRG publications, available at: http://cabinet.gov.krd/a/d.aspx?l=12&a=45887 (accessed 20 August 2018).
- Cambridge Business English Dictionary, Cambridge University Press. Available at: https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/tourist-attraction [accessed 14 Dec, 2018].
- Cooper, C., Fletcher, J., Gilbert, D., and Wanhill, S. (1993). Tourism: Principles and Practice. Longman: Harlow, UK.
- Dabbagh, Ismail, Alwan, Nofal, and Abdul Karim, Akram. (2008). The Relationship Between the Supply and Demand of Tourism in the Governorate of Najaf and the Possibility of Activating Religious Tourism in it. Journal of Management and Economics. [Online] No. 72. Available at: https://www.iasj.net/iasj?func=fulltext&aId=25888 [accessed 14 Dec, 2018].
- Falk Martin. (2011). ‘Impact of Long‐Term Weather on Domestic and Foreign Winter Tourism Demand’. International Journal of Tourism, 22 July. [Online]. available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jtr.865 (accessed 5 August 2018).
- Green, William H. (2000). Econometric Analysis. 4rth edition. Prentice Hall International Edition.
- Haiyan, Song, and Lee, Gang. (2008). ‘Tourism demand modelling and forecasting’. Tourism Management Volume 29, Issue 2, April, p. 203-220.
- Hong, Gong Soog; Morrison Alastair M.; Cai, Liping A. (1996). ‘Household Expenditure Patterns for Tourism Products and Services’. Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, Volume 4, Issue 4.
- http://cf.cdn.unwto.org/sites/all/files/141015_measuring_employment_4c_stsa_wm.pdf
- http://repository.up.ac.za/bitstream/handle/2263/24684/02chapters3-4.pdf?sequence=3
- http://www.rudaw.net/sorani/onair/tv/episodes/episode/lagal_ranj_31082017?utm_source=KwikPlayer&utm_medium=KwikShare&utm_campaign=KwikMotion
- https://en.wikiversity.org/wiki/Tourism/Introduction#Business_of_tourism
- https://knoema.com/atlas/Iraq/topics/Tourism/Travel-and-Tourism-Total-Contribution-to-GDP/Contribution-of-travel-and-tourism-to-GDP-percent-of-GDP (accessed 10 Jun 2018).
- https://www.littlehotelier.com/calculate-your-occupancy-rate/
- https://www.slideshare.net/ALTINBAKU/classification-of-tourists
- Koc, Erdogan, and Altinay, Galib. (2007). An Analysis of Seasonality in Monthly Per Person Tourist Spending in Turkish Inbound Tourism From a Market Segmentation Perspective. Tourism Management. Volume 28, Issue 1, Pages 227-237, [Online]. available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517706000069 [accessed 6 Feb, 2018].
- Lee, Christine, Bergin-Seers, Sue, Galloway, Graeme, O'Mahony, Barry, and McMurray, Adela. (2008). Seasonality in the Tourism Industry: Impacts and Strategies. [e book] CRC for Sustainable Tourism Pty Ltd, Australia. Available at: http://www.academia.edu/10771941/SEASONALITY_IN_THE_TOURISM_INDUSTRY_Impacts_and_Strategies [accessed 27 Jun, 2017].
- Leung, Daniel, et al. (2012). ‘Social Media in Tourism and Hospitality’. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing Volume 30, 2013 - Issue 1-2: Social Media, p. 3-22 .[Online]. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/10548408.2013.750919 (accessed 15 August 2018).
- Lim, Christine. (1997). ‘Review of international tourism demand models’. Annals of Tourism Research, Volume 24, Issue 4, October, p. 835-849.
- Litvin, Stephan W., Goldsmith, Ronald E., and Pan, Bing. (2008). Electronic Word-of-Mouth in Hospitality and Tourism Management. Tourism Management. [Online] Volume 29, Issue 3, Pages 458-468, available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517707001343 [accessed 7 May, 2017].
- Mankiw, N. Gregory, and Tylor, Mark P. (2006). Microeconomic. Thomson Learning, C&C Offset Printing Co., Ltd.
- Murphy, P. E. (1985). Tourism: A Community Approach (RLE Tourism). London: Routledge.
- Oh, Chi Ok. (2005). ‘The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy’. Tourism Management, Volume 26, Issue 1, February, p. 39-44.
- Orchard, E. W., Glen, John, and Eden, James. (1997). Business Economics, An Active Learning Approach. Oxford, UK.
- Pizam, Abraham, and Fleischer Aliza. (2002). ‘Severity versus Frequency of Acts of Terrorism: Which Has a Larger Impact on Tourism Demand?’. [Online]. available at: https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0047287502040003011 (accessed 8 March 2018)
- Poon, Auliana. (1994). The New Tourism Revolution. Tourism Management, Vol. 15, Issue 2, pp. 91-92.
- Schubert, Stefan, et al. (2011). ‘The impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism’. Tourism Management, Volume 32, Issue 2, April, p. 377-385. [Online]. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2010.03.007 (accessed 8 March 2018).
- Schwaninger, Markus. (1989). Strategic Management in Tourism. Tourism Marketing and Management Handbook, New York etc.: Prentice Hall International. pp. 425-432.
- Vanhove, Norbert. (2018). the Economics of Tourism Destinations. Routledge, London.
- Witt, Stephen F. and Witt, Christine A. (1995). ‘Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research, International’. Journal of Forecasting, vol. 11, issue 3, 447-475.
- World Tourism Organization, Understanding Tourism: Basic Glossary. [Online]. Available at https://www.e-unwto.org/ (accessed 2 March 2018).
Published
2019-10-23
How to Cite
1.
Hassan S. The Demand for Tourism in the Province of Erbil, Especially during the Winter Season of 2015-2016. JAHS [Internet]. 23Oct.2019 [cited 15Dec.2019];23(5):308 -329. Available from: https://zancojournals.su.edu.krd/index.php/JAHS/article/view/2571
Section
Articles